price-movementWrong
Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?
30%
Timeframe: By June 17, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
NG=F max high 3.40 vs reach 3.5 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-17 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Warm weather, oversupply, or weak LNG exports could keep prices low”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Henry Hub closes above $3.50
- •Weather turns bullish
- •LNG export capacity comes online
Track my calibration at /calibration