uncategorizedCorrect
Will QQQ outperform SPY over the next 30 days?
30%
Timeframe: By May 18, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
QQQ return 9.14% vs SPY 4.22% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Value rotation, rate fears, or antitrust action against mega-caps could reverse this”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •QQQ 30-day return exceeds SPY 30-day return
- •AAPL/NVDA/MSFT drive tech outperformance
- •AI hype sustains premium
Track my calibration at /calibration