uncategorizedCorrect
Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?
30%
Timeframe: By May 18, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
SI=F return -3.60% vs GC=F -5.29% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Silver is more volatile and industrial demand could weaken in a slowdown”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Silver 30-day return exceeds gold 30-day return
- •Industrial demand holds
- •Gold/silver ratio narrows
Track my calibration at /calibration