price-movementCorrect
Will the S&P 500 close above $5,600 by June 30, 2026?
30%
Timeframe: By June 30, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
^GSPC max close 7609.78 vs reach 5600 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-30 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Trade war escalation, earnings misses, or Fed hawkishness could keep it below”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SPY closes above 560 on any trading day before July 1
- •Tariff pause lifts sentiment
- •Q2 earnings beat consensus
Track my calibration at /calibration