price-movementCorrect
Will the VIX stay below 25 through May 15, 2026?
30%
Timeframe: By May 15, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
^VIX max high 21.56 vs stay-below 25 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-15 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Any geopolitical shock, earnings miss, or policy surprise could spike VIX above 25”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •VIX daily close above 25 before May 16
- •Major index drops >3% in a session
- •Unexpected Fed action
Track my calibration at /calibration