← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

WTI crude oil stays above $55/barrel through 2026/05/20

55%
Timeframe: By May 20, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedMay 20, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“OPEC+ production increases could push prices lower. Global demand weakness from trade tensions. US strategic reserve releases.”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •WTI drops below $55/barrel
  • •OPEC+ announces major production increase
  • •Global recession indicators spike sharply
Track my calibration at /calibration