commoditiesCorrect
WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Diplomatic breakthrough before April 6 could cause sharp oil selloff”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran agrees to reopen Hormuz before deadline
- •US releases strategic reserves
- •OPEC+ increases production
- •Global demand destruction from recession fears
- •Surprise ceasefire announcement
Track my calibration at /calibration