cryptoWrong
XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
53%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.2809
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 53% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“XRP rally requires positive SEC regulatory catalyst which is not imminent”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SEC appeals Ripple ruling
- •Broader crypto selloff
- •Whale dumping on exchanges
- •No new exchange listings or partnerships
- •Volume dries up after recent pump
Track my calibration at /calibration