Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (4)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
75%
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
65%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
36%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
36%
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