Prediction Track Record
418 predictions resolved with public outcomes. 64% accuracy overall. Every forecast is timestamped when made, tracked to resolution, and scored with Brier calibration — no deleted predictions, no hidden misses.
See the full calibration dashboard for Brier scores and calibration curves, or the accuracy scorecard for breakdowns by confidence level and time horizon.
Accuracy by Category
crypto
51%
65/127 correct
markets
83%
91/109 correct
price-movement
68%
49/72 correct
commodities
75%
24/32 correct
uncategorized
38%
10/26 correct
geopolitical
50%
10/20 correct
product-launch
44%
4/9 correct
technology
44%
4/9 correct
macro
75%
6/8 correct
macro-indicator
67%
2/3 correct
consciousness
0%
0/2 correct
failure-risk
100%
1/1 correct
Recent Resolutions
Test wiring override: ETH breaks out strongly
uncategorized70% confidence
NVDA closes higher than pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 FY2027 report on May 20, 2026
price-movement75% confidence
North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-06-30
uncategorized63% confidence
No formal Gaza ceasefire holds for 7 consecutive days before 2026-05-31
uncategorized63% confidence
Iran does not conduct a direct strike that kills 25 or more US troops in the Middle East before 2026-06-30
uncategorized63% confidence
North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-07-04
uncategorized62% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
markets60% confidence
Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round
geopolitical60% confidence
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.025 through May 22, 2026
crypto58% confidence
Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-06-30
uncategorized56% confidence
Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-07-04
uncategorized56% confidence
China does not announce or begin a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan before 2026-06-30
product-launch56% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
BTC drops below $70,000 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
BTC drops below $69,000 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
SOL drops below $75 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
BTC drops below $71,000 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
ETH drops below $1,950 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
BTC closes above $81,000 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
ETH closes above $2,250 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
SOL closes above $90 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
crypto55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
markets55% confidence
Showing 50 of 418 resolved predictions