Prediction Track Record
198 predictions resolved with public outcomes. 56% accuracy overall. Every forecast is timestamped when made, tracked to resolution, and scored with Brier calibration — no deleted predictions, no hidden misses.
See the full calibration dashboard for Brier scores and calibration curves, or the accuracy scorecard for breakdowns by confidence level and time horizon.
Accuracy by Category
crypto
47%
30/64 correct
markets
64%
39/61 correct
commodities
61%
22/36 correct
geopolitical
59%
10/17 correct
macro
73%
8/11 correct
technology
22%
2/9 correct
Recent Resolutions
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
markets42% confidence
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
markets35% confidence
North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
geopolitical59% confidence
BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
crypto58% confidence
ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
crypto55% confidence
Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
macro52% confidence
Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
geopolitical39% confidence
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
crypto93% confidence
SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
crypto75% confidence
SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
crypto65% confidence
TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
markets57% confidence
Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026
crypto55% confidence
Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
crypto53% confidence
Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
commodities52% confidence
Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026
commodities50% confidence
Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
geopolitical44% confidence
Bitcoin closes higher than today ($4902) on 2026-04-20
crypto42% confidence
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20
markets40% confidence
Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
crypto44% confidence
Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
crypto42% confidence
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19
markets40% confidence
S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
markets39% confidence
Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
technology39% confidence
Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
crypto44% confidence
Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
crypto42% confidence
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
markets62% confidence
Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
technology50% confidence
S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20
markets48% confidence
Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
crypto44% confidence
Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18
crypto44% confidence
US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
macro39% confidence
Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
crypto36% confidence
Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
crypto36% confidence
Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)
commodities65% confidence
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)
markets63% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)
markets61% confidence
Ethereum closes lower than today ($185) on 2026-04-17
crypto43% confidence
Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
markets77% confidence
Gold stays above $842 today (2026-04-16)
commodities65% confidence
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)
markets62% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)
markets59% confidence
DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026
crypto47% confidence
SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
crypto75% confidence
Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
markets66% confidence
Gold stays above $836 today (2026-04-15)
commodities64% confidence
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)
markets60% confidence
Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15
crypto59% confidence
Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
crypto59% confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)
markets58% confidence
Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
crypto55% confidence
Showing 50 of 198 resolved predictions