Prediction Tracker
Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.
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Active (5)
technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026
Will at least one major AI company release a model scoring above GPT-4 on MMLU by June 2026?
37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 7, 2026
Will Apple announce an AI-powered Siri upgrade at WWDC 2026?
37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy May 31, 2026
Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?
37%
cryptoExperimentalOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?
35%
commoditiesExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026
Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?
32%
Resolved (13)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
75%
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
65%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMay 1
✅ North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
59%
marketsExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 14
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
47%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 26
✅ Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
44%
macroExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 21
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
39%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.37PoorApr 30
✅ Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
39%
marketsExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.14GoodApr 7
❌ NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
38%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
36%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
36%
macroExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.41PoorApr 14
✅ No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
36%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14
❌ Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)
15%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14
❌ Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
15%
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