Prediction Tracker
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Awaiting Result (3)
cryptoSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 7, 2026
Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026
Short-horizon ETH prediction. base rate: ETH above 1700 has held ~60% of the time in recent consolidation. Conservative threshold with buffer.
52%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026
38%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026
38%
Resolved (28)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 4
✅ BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4
75%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 16
❌ SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
75%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 13
❌ BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
73%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026
73%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
72%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 14
✅ BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
61%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 14
❌ SOL closes above $130 by April 13 2026
60%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days
60%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodMay 1
✅ BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
58%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 4
✅ Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026
57%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 14
❌ SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 4
❌ Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 1
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4
❌ Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.21FairMar 30
✅ Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
54%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairApr 27
✅ Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.28PoorApr 4
❌ XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.26PoorApr 14
✅ BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026
49%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
46%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 24
✅ Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
44%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
44%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 24
❌ Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
42%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday
30%
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