Prediction Tracker
Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.
You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.
Awaiting Result (9)
marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026
QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026
Floor prediction for Nasdaq-100 ETF. base rate: QQQ has maintained floors at similar buffer levels ~62% of the time.
55%
marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026
SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026
Floor prediction with generous buffer. Markets have been resilient.
55%
cryptoSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 7, 2026
Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026
Short-horizon ETH prediction. base rate: ETH above 1700 has held ~60% of the time in recent consolidation. Conservative threshold with buffer.
52%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026
42%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026
40%
commoditiesSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026
40%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026
38%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026
38%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026
35%
Resolved (93)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 7
✅ Gold stays above $687 today (2026-04-06)
85%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 25
✅ Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25
80%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 14
❌ Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026
75%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 4
✅ BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4
75%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentMar 31
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
75%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 16
❌ SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
75%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentMar 31
✅ Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31
73%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 13
❌ BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
73%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026
73%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 2
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $50 today (2026-04-01)
72%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
72%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
71%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 31
❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
70%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 28
❌ Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
70%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10ExcellentMar 31
✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
69%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.48PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
69%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 2
✅ Gold stays above $736 today (2026-04-01)
68%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.46PoorApr 4
❌ VIX closes above $25 on April 4
68%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 4
✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
68%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.42PoorApr 18
❌ Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 17
✅ Gold stays above $842 today (2026-04-16)
65%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 5
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodMar 31
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.13GoodApr 16
✅ Gold stays above $836 today (2026-04-15)
64%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 18
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)
63%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 15
✅ Gold stays above $809 today (2026-04-14)
63%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 17
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)
62%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 14
✅ Gold stays above $754 today (2026-04-13)
62%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.38PoorMar 31
❌ Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
62%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 18
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)
61%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 14
✅ BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
61%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.37PoorApr 13
❌ VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026
61%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)
60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 15
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-14)
60%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 14
❌ SOL closes above $130 by April 13 2026
60%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 6
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below $63 through 2026-04-06
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4
✅ Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4
✅ Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
✅ WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
✅ Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
60%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days
60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 17
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)
59%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 13
✅ Gold stays above $676 today (2026-04-07)
59%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodMay 1
✅ BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 16
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $79 today (2026-04-13)
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14
✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 15
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $86 today (2026-04-14)
57%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 4
✅ Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026
57%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodApr 13
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $59 today (2026-04-07)
56%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 14
❌ SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 4
❌ Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 1
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 4
✅ Gold stays above $627 today (2026-04-02)
55%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 7
❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
55%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 28
✅ VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4
❌ Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
❌ Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
✅ Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.21FairMar 30
✅ Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
54%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairApr 27
✅ Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.28PoorApr 4
❌ XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
53%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 27
✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
52%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.24FairApr 13
✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
51%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 27
❌ Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026
50%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 6
❌ Brent Crude stays below $12 through 2026-04-06
50%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.26PoorApr 14
✅ BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026
49%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.23FairApr 21
❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20
48%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 14
✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026
47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 13
✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above $18,000 by April 9, 2026
46%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
46%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
45%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 24
✅ Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
44%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
44%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 7
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
44%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMay 2
✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
42%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 24
❌ Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
42%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $35.72 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ SPY stays above $74.64 today (2026-04-15)
40%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16
❌ Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7
✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above $02 through 2026-04-07
40%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
❌ VIX stays below $25 through end of week
40%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.12GoodMay 2
❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
35%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
30%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday
30%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.56PoorMar 30
✅ Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
25%
You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.