Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (3)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMay 1
✅ North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
59%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 26
✅ Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
44%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.37PoorApr 30
✅ Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
39%
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