Prediction Tracker

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220
Total
22
Active
198
Resolved
0.24
Brier Score
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All classes (220)Search-first (109)Core (93)Experimental (18)
All categories (42)commoditiescryptogeopoliticalmacromarketstechnology

Awaiting Result (5)

marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026

QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026

Floor prediction for Nasdaq-100 ETF. base rate: QQQ has maintained floors at similar buffer levels ~62% of the time.

55%
marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026

SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026

Floor prediction with generous buffer. Markets have been resilient.

55%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026

Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026

42%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026

40%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026

35%

Resolved (37)

How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.

marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 2

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $50 today (2026-04-01)

72%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 4

❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4

71%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 31

❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026

70%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10ExcellentMar 31

✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31

69%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.48PoorApr 4

❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

69%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.46PoorApr 4

❌ VIX closes above $25 on April 4

68%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 4

✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

68%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 5

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)

65%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 18

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)

63%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 17

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)

62%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 18

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)

61%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.37PoorApr 13

❌ VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026

61%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)

60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 15

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-14)

60%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 6

❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below $63 through 2026-04-06

60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 17

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)

59%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 16

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)

58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $79 today (2026-04-13)

58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14

✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09

58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 15

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $86 today (2026-04-14)

57%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodApr 13

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $59 today (2026-04-07)

56%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 7

❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07

55%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 28

✅ VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026

55%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.24FairApr 13

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026

51%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.23FairApr 21

❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20

48%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 14

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026

47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 13

✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09

47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14

✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above $18,000 by April 9, 2026

46%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28

✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

45%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 7

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07

44%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMay 2

✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026

42%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16

✅ SPY stays above $74.64 today (2026-04-15)

40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16

✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)

40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7

✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above $02 through 2026-04-07

40%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28

❌ VIX stays below $25 through end of week

40%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.12GoodMay 2

❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026

35%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28

❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)

30%

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