Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (3)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
✅ Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at its April 28-29 FOMC meeting
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
US 10-year Treasury yield on April 20, 2026 was around 4.26%, not above 5%
✅ No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
As of the 2026-04-14 check, no qualifying G7 recession-confirming GDP report was found; note the prediction's expiry metadata was earlier than its stated target date.
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