Prediction Tracker

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

✅ Gold stays above 687 today (2026-04-06)

Gold prices were far above the stated 687 threshold on 2026-04-06, so the condition held for the day.

✅ Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25

✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026

Web check: XLE outperformed XLK over the 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-16 window; period comparisons show energy strongly ahead of tech.

❌ SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow

❌ NVDA closes higher than pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 FY2027 report on May 20, 2026

Invalidated: Empty or too-short title — not publishable. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10

Reuters and White House releases from 2026-01-07/08 show the United States announced withdrawal from major international agreements and organizations including the Paris climate agreement and WHO.

❌ Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target

Web search results on 2026-04-06 show Bitcoin trading around 9.7k, below the 1,200 7-day target at resolution.

✅ Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06

Federal Reserve News & Events showed no emergency rate action announcement by the 2026-04-06 deadline; the last listed FOMC press conference was March 18, 2026 and the page was updated April 3 without an emergency move.

❌ Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026

Yahoo Finance BZ=F data shows Brent traded below $100 before 2026-04-10, including a 2026-04-08 intraday low near $90.01.

✅ BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4

✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026

✅ Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026

No Federal Reserve emergency rate announcement or emergency policy change was found before 2026-04-11.

❌ SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026

Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 was still in progress by the configured resolve date, so full-quarter SOL vs ETH performance was not yet determinable.

❌ Oil prices exceed 120 USD per barrel at some point in April 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (54) on 2026-04-05

The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday on 2026-04-03 and remained closed on Sunday 2026-04-05, so SPY had no 2026-04-05 close; the stated criterion therefore did not occur.

❌ Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

QUBIC closed at exactly /bin/bash.000001, not above - prediction requires strictly above target

❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days

Reuters and Fortune market coverage show Brent jumped to about 11 by 2026-04-02/06 versus about 00.26 on 2026-04-01, far outside the stated range constraint.

✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)

S&P 500 closed at 6,343 points vs Oil ~03/barrel - S&P 500 points (6343) is higher than oil price (~103), as confirmed by CNBC March 30 market close data

✅ Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31

❌ Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko

ETH showed narrow range volatility in March - predicted single large swing but ETH was range-bound

❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days

❌ BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026

above $75000 — actual $71046

✅ BTC above 75k by end of April

❌ BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 50 today (2026-04-01)

S&P 500 closed at 6,343, well above 50 - confirmed by CNBC March 30, 2026 market close

❌ Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target

Bitcoin 3d forecast closed at ~8,500, below the 9,500 target

✅ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026

✅ Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

❌ BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today (00) on 2026-04-06

Reuters and Fortune market coverage show Brent was about 00.26 on 2026-04-01 and around 11 on 2026-04-06, so it closed higher than the starting level.

❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4

S&P 500 made new 20-day high, rallied above 5500 due to Middle East war resolution news

✅ Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31

❌ Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

above $9 — actual $8.85

❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026

FRED and AGA search results show Henry Hub around .88 on 2026-03-30 and struggling to hold above .00 through March, with no evidence of a close above .30 before 2026-04-07.

❌ Test wiring override: ETH breaks out strongly

Test override resolution

✅ At least one AI model achieves above 75% on SWE-bench Verified before May 2, 2026

❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026

below $500 — actual $6497.81

✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026

StockAnalysis SPY history shows a 2.91% daily move on 2026-03-31, exceeding the 2% threshold before 2026-04-07.

❌ Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days

✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31

above $500 — actual $6497.81

❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

below $500 — actual $6582.69

✅ Gold stays above 736 today (2026-04-01)

Gold closed March 1 at ~,200+ (was ,660 on March 20, ,430-4,439 on March 26-27), far above 36 threshold

❌ VIX closes above 25 on April 4

VIX closed below 25, estimated ~22.5 based on March 2026 levels of 25.25

✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below 20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

Nasdaq closed at 20,312 on April 2, 2026, below 20,500 target before April 4

❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days

StockAnalysis SPY history shows it stayed within the original 16-95 framing during the window; highs were around 660 and lows around 638-645, so no breakout occurred.

✅ US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026

News coverage through 2026-04-11 did not show confirmed US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

❌ Ukraine loses additional significant territory by end of April

❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting

Malformed expiry: the May 2026 FOMC meeting had not occurred by the configured resolve date, so this prediction was not yet resolvable.

❌ SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer

❌ Gold stays above 808 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: gold's quoted 2026-04-17 close was about ,800, below the prediction's reference level of about ,808, so it did not stay above that level through the day.

✅ Gold stays above 842 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: gold remained far above 842 on 2026-04-16, with spot prices around ,816-,822/oz; the threshold was satisfied all day.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 55 today (2026-04-02)

Yahoo Finance SPY historical data shows SPY closed 655.83 on 2026-04-02, which is clearly above 55.

✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31

✅ Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026

Reuters on 2026-04-02 reported Iran had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and 40 countries were discussing ways to reopen it; no unrestricted reopening occurred before the 2026-04-06 deadline.

✅ Gold stays above 836 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance GC=F daily data for 2026-04-15 showed gold futures low about ,812 and close about ,857, so gold stayed above 836 all day.

✅ Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic through April 2026

❌ China conducts major Taiwan Strait military exercise in April

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: VIX closed at 17.65 on 2026-04-17, which is below 20, so the prediction resolved correct.

✅ Gold stays above 809 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via April 2026 gold price coverage: gold remained well above 809 on 2026-04-14.

❌ North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ No formal Gaza ceasefire holds for 7 consecutive days before 2026-05-31

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Iran does not conduct a direct strike that kills 25 or more US troops in the Middle East before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ Anthropic updates Claude model docs at least once by May 16

✅ NVIDIA publishes at least one new model on HuggingFace by May 16

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: VIX closed at 18.57 on 2026-04-16, which is below 20.

✅ Gold stays above 754 today (2026-04-13)

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance GC=F stayed far above 754 on 2026-04-13, with an intraday low near $4,704.00.

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days

S&P 500 index closed at 6892 on April 14 2026, far above 4513, thus broke out of range

❌ North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-07-04

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 02 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: SPY closed above the stated 702 threshold on 2026-04-17; reported closes were above 705 and above 710 across cited market-data sources, so the above-702 condition was satisfied.

✅ BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD lows stayed above $62,000 throughout the window ending 2026-04-09.

❌ VIX stays above 25 every trading day through April 10, 2026

above $25 — actual $19.23

✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31

above $1.14 — actual $1.1547

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 205.10 on 2026-06-05 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 214.75 on 2026-06-03 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 211.14 on 2026-05-29 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 214.25 on 2026-05-28 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 212.60 on 2026-05-27 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 214.86 on 2026-05-26 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 219.51 on 2026-05-21 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 223.47 on 2026-05-20 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 220.61 on 2026-05-19 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA close 222.32 on 2026-05-18 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC stays above $75,000 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for ^VIX on 2026-04-15 showed a close around 18.17, below 20.

✅ Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at its April 28-29 FOMC meeting

❌ Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via 2026-04-14 market coverage showing VIX at 19.12, which is below 20.

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days

above $500 — actual $6816.89

❌ SOL closes above 130 by April 13 2026

Yahoo Finance SOL-USD never closed above $130 by 2026-04-13; it closed about $84.95 on 2026-04-11 and about $81.54 on 2026-04-12.

❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days

Yahoo Finance SPY chart data shows SPY closed 650.34 on 2026-03-31, 655.24 on 2026-04-01, and 655.83 on 2026-04-02, so it was nowhere near the claimed 81-83 range.

❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below 63 through 2026-04-06

StockAnalysis historical data shows SPY closed at 655.83 on 2026-04-02, far above 63, so the prediction was false.

✅ Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4

✅ Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4

✅ WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026

✅ Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026

✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026

Web search results for April 2026 silver prices show silver above 0/oz by 2026-04-06, so the threshold was reached before expiry.

❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026

TradingEconomics and Reuters-adjacent search results show copper near .90/lb in early April 2026, with no evidence of a close above .10/lb before 2026-04-07.

✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026

Satisfied: Microsoft launched three new AI models on 2026-04-03, which qualifies as a major AI product launch before 2026-04-11.

❌ Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours

❌ BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 00 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: SPY closed at 701.55 on 2026-04-16, so it finished above 700.

✅ Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15

CoinGecko history/range data for 2026-04-15 showed ETH around ,323 close and intraday prices above the intended ~,184 threshold.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15

CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC ended the UTC day around 4,833, above the intended ~0,722 threshold.

✅ Gold stays above 676 today (2026-04-07)

above $676 — actual $4743.7

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (32) on 2026-04-04

S&P 500 ETI closed at 5,254 on April 4th, above the 5232 threshold from April 1st

❌ No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06

Reuters coverage by 2026-04-06 described an expanding Iran war, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards claiming attacks on petrochemical plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, which counts as major regional military escalation before the deadline.

✅ Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

above $0.085 — actual $0.089771

✅ North Korea conducts ICBM test in April

✅ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.025 through May 22, 2026

min ETH/BTC ratio 0.02735 vs >=0.025 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-23 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 94 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed a close around 99.94, above 94.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 79 today (2026-04-13)

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance SPY closed about $686.10 on 2026-04-13, well above 79.

✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance SPY traded far above 76 throughout the window and closed about $679.91 on 2026-04-09.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 86 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via April 2026 market coverage: SPY/S&P 500 levels were hundreds of points above 86, so this condition was satisfied.

✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28

✅ Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 59 today (2026-04-07)

above $500 — actual $6816.89

❌ Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-07-04

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ China does not announce or begin a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026

From 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-09, Yahoo Finance shows SOL gained about 5.5% while BTC gained about 7.3%, so SOL did not outperform BTC.

✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026

above $1.148 — actual $1.1547

❌ Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

below $8 — actual $8.78

❌ Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance

SPY close 754.24 on 2026-06-03 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 744.21 on 2026-06-03 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 388.59 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC drops below $70,000 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 59108.92 vs drop-below 70000 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1540.16 vs drop-below 1900 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 61.59 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC stays below $75,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ ETH stays below $2,050 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance

SPY close 759.57 on 2026-06-02 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 746.16 on 2026-06-02 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC drops below $69,000 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 61335.75 vs drop-below 69000 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1717.80 vs drop-below 1900 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ SOL drops below $75 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 67.52 vs drop-below 75 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance

SPY close 758.54 on 2026-06-01 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 742.74 on 2026-06-01 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 413.65 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC drops below $71,000 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 64009.68 vs drop-below 71000 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH drops below $1,950 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1771.31 vs drop-below 1950 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 70.97 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH stays below $2,100 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

✅ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 66127.27 vs drop-below 73000 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC stays between $73,000 and $80,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1838.06 vs drop-below 2000 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,200 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 72.87 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 738.31 on 2026-05-29 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC closes above $81,000 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD close 71319.77 on 2026-06-01 vs >=81000 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ BTC stays between $74,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH closes above $2,250 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD close 2003.22 on 2026-06-01 vs >=2250 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,250 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL closes above $90 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD close 81.09 on 2026-06-01 vs >=90 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 729.45 on 2026-05-27 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 420.51 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-22..2026-05-29 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 730.28 on 2026-05-26 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 412.90 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-21..2026-05-28 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 406.39 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-20..2026-05-27 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

✅ BTC stays between $73,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-19..2026-05-26 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-18..2026-05-25 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ ETH stays below $2,150 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance

✅ BTC stays below $81,000 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

✅ ETH stays below $2,250 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL stays below $90 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

❌ BTC drops below $75,000 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

✅ BTC stays between $75,000 and $83,000 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

✅ ETH drops below $2,100 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL drops below $85 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

❌ BTC stays above $80,000 through 2026-05-16 per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 713.15 on 2026-05-20 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ BTC closes above $85,000 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

✅ BTC stays between $77,000 and $85,000 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH closes above $2,400 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

❌ ETH stays between $2,200 and $2,400 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika

❌ SOL closes above $95 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 701.53 on 2026-05-19 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-14..2026-05-21 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 705.88 on 2026-05-18 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-13..2026-05-20 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 708.93 on 2026-05-15 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-12..2026-05-19 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ close 708.93 on 2026-05-15 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA min low 405.33 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-11..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance

✅ BTC stays above $77,000 through May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC

❌ BTC does not drop below $75,000 between May 8-14, 2026

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

QQQ closed at $707.24 on May 12, 2026. Well above $460. Source: MacroTrends/MarketBeat.

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA closed at ~$433 on May 13, 2026 (intraday low $422). Well above $200. Source: Yahoo Finance.

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA closed at ~$227 on May 13, 2026 (intraday low $221). Well above $100. Source: Yahoo Finance.

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

TSLA closed at $433.45 on May 12, 2026. Well above $200. Source: MacroTrends/Yahoo Finance.

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

NVDA closed at $220.78 on May 12, 2026. Well above $100. Source: MacroTrends/Yahoo Finance.

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Apple (AAPL) closes above $200 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Microsoft (MSFT) stays above $400 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

✅ At least one major AI lab releases a new model by 2026-05-16

✅ BTC closes within $73,000-$79,000 range on 2026-04-30

✅ ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30

✅ BTC outperforms ETH over next 48h (% change comparison)

✅ QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026

QQQ daily closes Apr 27-May 5 2026: all above $651 (Yahoo Finance). Lowest close $651.42. Never breached $460. Resolved YES.

✅ SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026

✅ WTI crude oil stays above $55/barrel through 2026/05/20

✅ Silver (XAGUSD) stays above $30/oz through 2026/05/20

SI=F min low 70.89 vs stay-above 30 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-20 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026

❌ Major AI lab publishes research connecting transformer attention to theories of consciousness before June 2026

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ US announces new Section 301 tariffs targeting at least 3 additional countries following April 28 hearings, before May 15, 2026

❌ OpenAI announces ChatGPT has surpassed 500 million monthly active users before May 2, 2026

Deadline-bounded prediction. OpenAI last publicly reported 400M weekly active users (Feb 2026). No credible report or press release of 500M MAU milestone before May 2, 2026. Resolves FALSE: event did not happen by the specified date.

✅ Gold stays above 627 today (2026-04-02)

Gold priced at ,676 (XAU/USD currency pair), well above the 27 threshold

❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07

StockAnalysis AAPL history shows a 2026-03-31 intraday low of 247.10 and a 2026-03-30 low of 245.51, so Apple did not stay above 50 through expiry.

✅ SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal

Yahoo Finance SOL-USD shows SOL rose more than 5% within seven days of 2026-04-01, reaching an intraday high near $86.81 vs about $81.20 at the start.

✅ Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily lows stayed above $60,000 through 2026-04-10; the lowest low in the window was about $65,725 on 2026-04-02.

✅ Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ VIX closes above 30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026

❌ Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026

❌ Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026

Cardano priced at /bin/bash.247 on April 1st, above the /bin/bash.22 threshold, trading in /bin/bash.25-/bin/bash.80 range

✅ No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026

No credible report was found of a new country imposing sanctions on Iran's oil exports before 2026-04-11.

✅ BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours

❌ Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days

❌ Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026

Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 had not ended by the configured resolve date, so net Q2 ETH ETF inflows were not yet determinable.

✅ Fear & Greed Index stays below 20 for next 48 hours

✅ BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours

✅ Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours

✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week

✅ Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026

✅ Iran conflict escalates to ground incursion by May 15 2026

✅ Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

❌ XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026

✅ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.028 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika

✅ SOL outperforms ETH over next 24h (% change comparison)

✅ Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026

✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026

❌ "Digital consciousness" appears in a mainstream news headline before May 2026

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting

✅ OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 to public API access before May 2, 2026

✅ Bitcoin 30-day price forecast: $76,500 target

✅ Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026

above $500 — actual $6816.89

❌ Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026

✅ Google announces a new Gemini model at Google I/O 2026 on May 19-20

❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21

No Meta flagship model announcement on April 21, 2026; last announcement was Muse Spark on April 9, 2026

✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06

Yahoo Finance / Macrotrends data shows MSFT closed 369.37 on 2026-04-01 and 373.46 on 2026-04-02; a 5% band from 369.37 is 350.90 to 387.84, so it remained within range through the configured 2026-04-04 resolve window (weekend, no trading).

✅ No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07

❌ Brent Crude stays below 12 through 2026-04-06

Reuters reported Brent crude settled at 09.03 on 2026-04-02, far above 12, so the prediction was false.

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (56) on 2026-04-11

Yahoo Finance SPY closed about $679.46 on 2026-04-10 versus about $658.93 on 2026-04-06, so it did not close lower than the starting level.

✅ BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closed above $70,000 before the deadline, including about $71,940 on 2026-04-07.

❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026

False: major labs released notable new foundation-model-class systems before 2026-04-11, including Meta's Muse Spark on 2026-04-08 and Microsoft's new AI models on 2026-04-03.

❌ Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline

News coverage through 2026-04-11 showed threats and analysis, not a confirmed resumption or authorization of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20

SPY ETF price remained above 00 in April 2026, not below 4

✅ EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ^GSPC shows the S&P 500 closed well above 5,800 before the deadline, including about 6,824.66 on 2026-04-09.

❌ DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026

Web check: DOGE traded around /bin/bash.0968 on 2026-04-16 and did not exceed /bin/bash.12.

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09

Yahoo Finance QQQ closed about $610.19 on 2026-04-09, more than 2% above the $582 reference level.

✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09

below $22 — actual $19.23

✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above 18,000 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ^IXIC shows the Nasdaq Composite closed above 18,000 before the deadline, including about 22,822.42 on 2026-04-09.

✅ ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closed above $2,200 before the deadline, including about $2,241.81 on 2026-04-07.

✅ No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09

No credible report was found of a new Israel-Iran sanctions package being announced by 2026-04-09.

✅ No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08

As of the 2026-04-05 resolve window, Reuters South Korea coverage showed no major military escalation on the Korean Peninsula; coverage focused on spillover from the Iran conflict and economic and energy issues instead.

✅ US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07

US Treasury daily yield data for 2026-04-06 shows the 10-year yield remained below 5%, around the mid-4% range, through expiry.

✅ BTC closes above $78,000 on May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC

✅ Will the ETH/BTC ratio be below 0.029 on May 10, 2026 23:59 UTC?

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $560 at least once before June 1, 2026

SPY max close 758.54 vs reach 560 over 2026-04-20..2026-06-01 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,000/oz every trading day through May 31, 2026

GC=F min low 4363.50 vs stay-above 3000 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07

Yahoo Finance MSFT did not move more than 5% from the 2026-04-02 reference price before the stated date; highs and lows stayed within that band.

❌ Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

❌ NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

❌ Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

✅ USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026

❌ US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026

above $4.6 — actual $4.317

❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open

❌ Gordon Alpha Brief reaches 100 subscribers

Invalidated: Insufficient evidence for official status — no evidence families, signals, or structured evidence items. Long horizon without supporting data.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD: Ethereum started near ,184 and traded above ,250 immediately; 2026-04-14 high was ,415.53, so the threshold was reached within 7 days.

❌ Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)

❌ Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 revenue above Wall Street consensus estimate on May 20, 2026

Invalidated: Superseded by nvidia-reports-q1-fy2027-revenue-ab-499530 (specific $44B threshold, higher confidence, passes flagship gate). Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20

Ethereum price on April 20, 2026 was around ,290, far above ,081

✅ Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18

Bitcoin closed at 5,502.3 on April 18 2026, far above 6,202

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (56) on 2026-04-10

above $500 — actual $6816.89

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07

❌ EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026

Coverage before 2026-04-11 described backing, safeguards, and approval progress, not final ratification by both sides.

✅ Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days

Ceasefire agreement reached on April 8, 2026 as confirmed by multiple news sources including Wikipedia and UK Parliament research briefings

❌ Ethereum closes lower than today (185) on 2026-04-17

Web check: ETH-USD closed about ,284.72 on 2026-04-17, above the prediction's reference level of about ,185, so it did not close lower than that day's starting level.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today (3490) on 2026-04-14

Resolved via published BTC market price for 2026-04-14: Bitcoin traded around 4,314, which is far above the 3490 reference level.

❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10

Reuters reported Meta planned layoffs of 20%+ in March 2026 and Amazon had already announced 16,000 cuts in January 2026, so a major tech company did announce layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees before expiry.

✅ Will BTC trade above $80,000 at any point between May 3-9, 2026?

✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026

✅ Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026

AAPL closed at $276.83 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $276.83 > $210. Resolved YES.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today (4902) on 2026-04-20

Bitcoin closed around 5,000 on 2026-04-20, significantly higher than the baseline price of ,902

❌ Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD: Ethereum did not fall below the intended ,097 threshold within 7 days from the ,184 start; the lowest low in the window was ,254.70 on 2026-04-19.

❌ Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)

✅ GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026

❌ Iran launches direct strike on Israeli territory (not via proxies) by end of Q2 2026

Invalidated: Deferred — resolveBy more than 60 days out. System optimizing for faster learning loops. Re-create as short-horizon prediction with concrete trigger if still relevant.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ Will BTC close above $79,000 on May 6, 2026 23:59 UTC?

❌ Bitcoin rises above $80,000 by May 4, 2026

✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026

NVDA closed at $198.48 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $198.48 > $115. Resolved YES.

✅ Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (00) on 2026-04-20

Cannot determine outcome - baseline price appears to be placeholder (00) and no reliable historical data available for S&P 500 closing price on 2026-04-20

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above 35.72 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for GLD on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 39.60, so GLD stayed above 35.72 all day.

✅ SPY stays above 74.64 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 94.28, so SPY stayed above 74.64 all day.

✅ Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)

CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC intraday low around 3,617, so it stayed above 1,820 all day.

❌ Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for GLD on 2026-04-15 showed a low around 39.60 and close around 40.46, so GLD did not stay above 23; the threshold appears malformed.

✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 94.28, so SPY stayed above 25 all day.

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (86) on 2026-04-19

Yahoo Finance SPY: reference close was 86.10 on 2026-04-13; SPY closed 10.14 on 2026-04-17 and 08.72 on 2026-04-20, both above the baseline despite the malformed 2026-04-19 target falling on a non-trading day.

✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above 02 through 2026-04-07

StockAnalysis SPY history shows closes and lows remained well above the threshold through 2026-04-06; SPY traded between roughly 629 and 659 during the window.

❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07

OpenAI had already released new GPT-5-series flagship models before 2026-04-07; Reuters reported GPT-5.2 launched on 2025-12-11 and TechCrunch reported GPT-5.4 launched on 2026-03-05.

❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06

OpenAI announced the release of GPT-5.4 on its official site before the 2026-04-06 deadline, so the prediction that no major AI lab would release a new flagship model was false.

❌ VIX stays below 25 through end of week

❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above 103 through Friday

✅ Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h

❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

Yahoo Finance SPY: baseline was 99.94 on 2026-04-15/16; a 3% gain required 20.94 within 7 days, but the highest close was 11.21 on 2026-04-22 and the intraday high was 12.39, so SPY never gained 3%.

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20

Yahoo Finance MSFT: baseline close was 11.22 on 2026-04-15, so a 5% move required above 31.78 or below 90.66 by 2026-04-20; MSFT reached only 31.58 at the high and never hit either threshold.

❌ US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20

US 10-year Treasury yield on April 20, 2026 was around 4.26%, not above 5%

✅ Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April

❌ Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026

❌ Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026

❌ NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07

StockAnalysis NVDA history shows a 2026-04-06 close of 177.64, so NVIDIA did not close above 80 by expiry.

❌ Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)

Ethereum price decreased from ,370.17 on April 13 to ,290 on April 20, a loss of about 3.38%, which is less than 4%

❌ Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)

Bitcoin gained approximately 1.17% from April 13 to April 20, 2026 (from 4,450 to 5,324.58), which is less than 3%

✅ No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15

As of the 2026-04-14 check, no qualifying G7 recession-confirming GDP report was found; note the prediction's expiry metadata was earlier than its stated target date.

❌ BTC trades above $82,000 at any point between May 8-11, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026

❌ NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026

NVDA closed at $198.48 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $198.48 > $95. Did not drop below $95. Resolved NO.

❌ BTC moves more than 5% in either direction from $79,568 within 72 hours (by May 11)

BTC stayed in ~2% range around $79,568-$81,224 during May 9-12. Never breached 5% threshold ($83,546 or $75,590). Source: CoinGecko/Fortune.

❌ USDC price moves >-3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet inflow

Research-derived shadow prediction. Window: May 8-10, 2026. USDC is a regulated stablecoin with strong peg enforcement. Exchange inflows rarely cause >3% price deviations for USDC given its fiat-redeemable structure. Resolves FALSE.

❌ SOL price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

❌ USDC price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

❌ Will Solana trade above $100 by June 30, 2026?

SOL-USD max high 98.27 vs reach 100 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-30 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?

❌ Will Ethereum outperform Solana over the next 30 days?

ETH-USD return -9.47% vs SOL-USD -1.05% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?

MSFT return 1.31% vs GOOGL 17.64% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?

NVDA max high 236.54 vs reach 130 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?

NG=F max high 3.40 vs reach 3.5 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-17 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?

SI=F return -3.60% vs GC=F -5.29% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?

CL=F max high 110.93 vs reach 65 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?

✅ Will QQQ outperform SPY over the next 30 days?

QQQ return 9.14% vs SPY 4.22% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will the VIX stay below 25 through May 15, 2026?

^VIX max high 21.56 vs stay-below 25 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-15 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will the S&P 500 close above $5,600 by June 30, 2026?

^GSPC max close 7609.78 vs reach 5600 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-30 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)

❌ Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week

❌ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday

✅ Will SOL close above $90 on May 8, 2026 23:59 UTC?

❌ USDT price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

✅ Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation

❌ Will BTC move more than 3% in either direction within 24 hours of May 5, 2026 00:00 UTC?

BTC prices May 5 00:00 UTC: open ~$79,824, 24h range ~$78,563-$80,925 (~2.5% range). Did not move >3%. CoinGecko data. Resolved NO.

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 70000 over 2026-05-05..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09

No credible report was found of a new NATO-Russia sanctions package being announced by 2026-04-09.

❌ Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 55000 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 60000 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?

BTC-USD max high 82792.21 vs reach 105000 over 2026-05-04..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?

BTC-USD max high 82792.21 vs reach 100000 over 2026-05-03..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)

Yahoo Finance GC=F shows gold closed about $4,749.50 on 2026-04-08 versus roughly $4,750.90 at creation, nowhere near a 4% drop.

❌ Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

Yahoo Finance BZ=F shows Brent closed about $94.75 on 2026-04-08 versus roughly $100.26 at creation, a decline rather than a 3%+ gain.

❌ BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09

No credible report was found of a BOJ emergency rate action by 2026-04-09.

✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)

CBOE VIX_History.csv shows VIX closed 25.25 on 2026-03-31 and 23.87 on 2026-04-02, a decline of about 5.47%, so it lost more than 5% within the next 7 days.