Prediction Tracker
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Awaiting Result (1)
Resolved (92)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
cryptoCoreWrongApr 29
❌ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
93%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.05ExcellentApr 17
✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
77%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7
❌ No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
75%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7
❌ Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 6
✅ Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 14
✅ Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
75%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 6
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($54) on 2026-04-05
74%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 2
❌ Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
74%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 7
❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days
73%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentApr 2
✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 2
❌ Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko
73%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorApr 3
❌ Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target
72%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
72%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorMar 31
❌ BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
72%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 7
✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today ($00) on 2026-04-06
71%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31
71%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorMar 31
❌ Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
71%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 7
❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
71%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.09ExcellentApr 7
✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
70%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.45PoorApr 7
❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
67%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.11GoodApr 14
✅ US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
67%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.44PoorApr 16
❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
66%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 6
✅ Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
65%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 21
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
62%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
61%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days
60%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 5
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
60%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7
❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 14
✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
60%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
60%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 16
✅ Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15
59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 16
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
59%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04
59%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 6
❌ No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMar 31
✅ Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
59%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 29
✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
57%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
56%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.31PoorMar 31
❌ Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
56%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 27
✅ Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026
55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4
❌ Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026
55%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 16
❌ Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
✅ Fear & Greed Index stays below $20 for next 48 hours
55%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
55%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 30
✅ Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
52%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairMar 30
✅ Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
52%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 21
❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
50%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 5
✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
50%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 7
✅ No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
50%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($56) on 2026-04-11
49%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
49%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
49%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.27PoorMar 28
✅ EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
48%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.22FairApr 17
❌ DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026
47%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
46%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 6
✅ No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08
46%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 7
✅ US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
46%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31
❌ Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
❌ NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31
❌ Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
45%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
✅ USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
45%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 13
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
45%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 22
❌ Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
44%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 21
✅ Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18
44%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($56) on 2026-04-10
44%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 14
❌ EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
44%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 18
❌ Ethereum closes lower than today ($185) on 2026-04-17
43%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.32PoorApr 15
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today ($3490) on 2026-04-14
43%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 7
❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
43%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorApr 25
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today ($4902) on 2026-04-20
42%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 22
❌ Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
42%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMar 28
✅ GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
42%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 25
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20
40%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 24
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 6
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above $103 through Friday
40%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorMar 28
✅ Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
39%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
39%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week
30%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentApr 14
❌ New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
20%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 30
❌ Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
20%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.00ExcellentApr 14
❌ BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
5%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.90PoorApr 7
✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
5%
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