Prediction Tracker
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Expired (3)
OpenAI releases a model marketed as GPT-5 or its successor before June 30, 2026
Meta releases Llama 4 or successor open-weight model before June 19, 2026
Will at least one major AI company release a model scoring above GPT-4 on MMLU by June 2026?
Resolved (9)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
❌ China does not announce or begin a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan before 2026-06-30
Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
✅ US announces new Section 301 tariffs targeting at least 3 additional countries following April 28 hearings, before May 15, 2026
❌ OpenAI announces ChatGPT has surpassed 500 million monthly active users before May 2, 2026
Deadline-bounded prediction. OpenAI last publicly reported 400M weekly active users (Feb 2026). No credible report or press release of 500M MAU milestone before May 2, 2026. Resolves FALSE: event did not happen by the specified date.
✅ OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 to public API access before May 2, 2026
✅ Google announces a new Gemini model at Google I/O 2026 on May 19-20
❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
No Meta flagship model announcement on April 21, 2026; last announcement was Muse Spark on April 9, 2026
✅ No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
No credible report was found of a new Israel-Iran sanctions package being announced by 2026-04-09.
❌ New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
No credible report was found of a new NATO-Russia sanctions package being announced by 2026-04-09.
❌ BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
No credible report was found of a BOJ emergency rate action by 2026-04-09.
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