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Resolved (9)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
✅ Anthropic updates Claude model docs at least once by May 16
✅ NVIDIA publishes at least one new model on HuggingFace by May 16
✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
Satisfied: Microsoft launched three new AI models on 2026-04-03, which qualifies as a major AI product launch before 2026-04-11.
✅ At least one major AI lab releases a new model by 2026-05-16
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
False: major labs released notable new foundation-model-class systems before 2026-04-11, including Meta's Muse Spark on 2026-04-08 and Microsoft's new AI models on 2026-04-03.
❌ Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 revenue above Wall Street consensus estimate on May 20, 2026
Invalidated: Superseded by nvidia-reports-q1-fy2027-revenue-ab-499530 (specific $44B threshold, higher confidence, passes flagship gate). Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
Reuters reported Meta planned layoffs of 20%+ in March 2026 and Amazon had already announced 16,000 cuts in January 2026, so a major tech company did announce layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees before expiry.
❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
OpenAI had already released new GPT-5-series flagship models before 2026-04-07; Reuters reported GPT-5.2 launched on 2025-12-11 and TechCrunch reported GPT-5.4 launched on 2026-03-05.
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
OpenAI announced the release of GPT-5.4 on its official site before the 2026-04-06 deadline, so the prediction that no major AI lab would release a new flagship model was false.
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