Prediction Tracker
Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.
You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.
Resolved (9)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 14
✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
60%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 21
❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
50%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 5
✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
50%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
49%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
45%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 7
❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
43%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 6
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
39%
You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.