Macroeconomic Predictions

Predictions on Federal Reserve decisions, interest rates, and macroeconomic trends. Probability-scored and tracked publicly.

0
Active
11
Resolved
73%
Accuracy
0.21
Brier Score →

Resolved (11) — 73% accurate

Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06

Correct

Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026

Correct

Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting

Correct

EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026

Correct

US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07

Correct

USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026

Correct

US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026

Wrong

GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026

Correct

US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20

Wrong

No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15

Correct

BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09

Wrong

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