Geopolitical Predictions

Probability-scored predictions on geopolitical events, international relations, and global developments. Every forecast tracked to resolution.

1

Active

20

Resolved

50%

Accuracy

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Active Predictions

US government releases compelling UAP evidence by end 2026

Resolves by Dec 31, 2026

Resolved (20) — 50% accurate

No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10

US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026

Ukraine loses additional significant territory by end of April

Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026

Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic through April 2026

China conducts major Taiwan Strait military exercise in April

Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round

Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours

No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06

North Korea conducts ICBM test in April

No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026

Iran conflict escalates to ground incursion by May 15 2026

No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07

Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline

EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026

Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days

Iran launches direct strike on Israeli territory (not via proxies) by end of Q2 2026

Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h

Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April

Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours

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