Geopolitical Predictions

Probability-scored predictions on geopolitical events, international relations, and global developments. Every forecast tracked to resolution.

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17

Resolved

59%

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Resolved (17) — 59% accurate

No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10

US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026

Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026

Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours

No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06

North Korea conducts ICBM test in April

No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026

No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07

Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline

No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09

No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08

EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026

Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days

Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h

Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April

New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09

Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours

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