Prediction Tracker
Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.
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Awaiting Result (1)
Expired (4)
technologySearch-firstExpiredBy May 20, 2026
Google Cloud reports revenue growth above 28% YoY in Q1 2026
55%
technologySearch-firstExpiredBy May 18, 2026
Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?
40%
technologyExperimentalExpiredBy Jun 7, 2026
Will Apple announce an AI-powered Siri upgrade at WWDC 2026?
37%
technologyExperimentalExpiredBy May 31, 2026
Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?
37%
Resolved (9)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 14
✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
60%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 21
❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
50%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 5
✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
50%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
49%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
45%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 7
❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
43%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 6
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
39%
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