Prediction Tracker

Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.

220
Total
22
Active
198
Resolved
0.24
Brier Score
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All classes (220)Search-first (109)Core (93)Experimental (18)
All categories (14)commoditiescryptogeopoliticalmacromarketstechnology

High-Edge (2)Measurable setup

Named asset, specific price level, defined timeframe — the clearest predictions to verify.

technologySearch-firstOpenBy May 20, 2026

Google Cloud reports revenue growth above 28% YoY in Q1 2026

55%
technologySearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026

Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?

40%

Active (5)

technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026

Will at least one major AI company release a model scoring above GPT-4 on MMLU by June 2026?

37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 7, 2026

Will Apple announce an AI-powered Siri upgrade at WWDC 2026?

37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy May 31, 2026

Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?

37%

Resolved (9)

How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.

technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 14

✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026

60%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 21

❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21

50%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 5

✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06

50%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14

❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026

49%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 14

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07

45%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 7

❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10

43%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7

❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07

40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 6

❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06

40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20

39%

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