Prediction Tracker

✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026

Web check: XLE outperformed XLK over the 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-16 window; period comparisons show energy strongly ahead of tech.

❌ Test wiring override: ETH breaks out strongly

Test override resolution

✅ At least one AI model achieves above 75% on SWE-bench Verified before May 2, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days

StockAnalysis SPY history shows it stayed within the original 16-95 framing during the window; highs were around 660 and lows around 638-645, so no breakout occurred.

❌ North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ No formal Gaza ceasefire holds for 7 consecutive days before 2026-05-31

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Iran does not conduct a direct strike that kills 25 or more US troops in the Middle East before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days

S&P 500 index closed at 6892 on April 14 2026, far above 4513, thus broke out of range

❌ North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-07-04

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days

above $500 — actual $6816.89

✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance SPY traded far above 76 throughout the window and closed about $679.91 on 2026-04-09.

❌ Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-06-30

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-07-04

Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026

From 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-09, Yahoo Finance shows SOL gained about 5.5% while BTC gained about 7.3%, so SOL did not outperform BTC.

✅ Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting

❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20

SPY ETF price remained above 00 in April 2026, not below 4

✅ Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD: Ethereum started near ,184 and traded above ,250 immediately; 2026-04-14 high was ,415.53, so the threshold was reached within 7 days.

❌ Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)

❌ Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20

Ethereum price on April 20, 2026 was around ,290, far above ,081

✅ Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18

Bitcoin closed at 5,502.3 on April 18 2026, far above 6,202

❌ Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD: Ethereum did not fall below the intended ,097 threshold within 7 days from the ,184 start; the lowest low in the window was ,254.70 on 2026-04-19.

❌ Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)

❌ Will Ethereum outperform Solana over the next 30 days?

ETH-USD return -9.47% vs SOL-USD -1.05% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?

MSFT return 1.31% vs GOOGL 17.64% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?

SI=F return -3.60% vs GC=F -5.29% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will QQQ outperform SPY over the next 30 days?

QQQ return 9.14% vs SPY 4.22% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]