Prediction Tracker

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220
Total
22
Active
198
Resolved
0.24
Brier Score
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All classes (220)Search-first (109)Core (93)Experimental (18)
All categories (41)commoditiescryptogeopoliticalmacromarketstechnology

High-Edge (3)Measurable setup

Named asset, specific price level, defined timeframe — the clearest predictions to verify.

commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026

Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?

35%
commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026

Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?

35%
commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 31, 2026

Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?

32%

Active (5)

commoditiesExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026

Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?

32%

Awaiting Result (1)

commoditiesSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026

Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026

40%

Resolved (36)

How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.

commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 7

✅ Gold stays above $687 today (2026-04-06)

85%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 25

✅ Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25

80%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 14

❌ Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026

75%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentMar 31

✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026

75%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 7

❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days

73%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentMar 31

✅ Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31

73%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1

❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days

73%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 7

✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today ($00) on 2026-04-06

71%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 7

❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026

71%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 28

❌ Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days

70%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 2

✅ Gold stays above $736 today (2026-04-01)

68%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.42PoorApr 18

❌ Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)

65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 17

✅ Gold stays above $842 today (2026-04-16)

65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodMar 31

✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31

65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.13GoodApr 16

✅ Gold stays above $836 today (2026-04-15)

64%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 15

✅ Gold stays above $809 today (2026-04-14)

63%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 14

✅ Gold stays above $754 today (2026-04-13)

62%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.38PoorMar 31

❌ Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026

62%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4

✅ Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4

60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4

✅ Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4

60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28

✅ WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026

60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7

✅ Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026

60%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7

✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026

60%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7

❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026

60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 13

✅ Gold stays above $676 today (2026-04-07)

59%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 4

✅ Gold stays above $627 today (2026-04-02)

55%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28

❌ Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days

55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29

✅ Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours

55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 27

✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026

52%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 27

❌ Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026

50%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 6

❌ Brent Crude stays below $12 through 2026-04-06

50%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $35.72 today (2026-04-15)

40%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16

❌ Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)

40%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.56PoorMar 30

✅ Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation

25%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14

❌ Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)

15%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14

❌ Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

15%

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