Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (11)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 6
✅ Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 14
✅ Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 30
✅ Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
52%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.27PoorMar 28
✅ EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
48%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 7
✅ US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
46%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
✅ USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
45%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 13
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
45%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMar 28
✅ GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
42%
macroExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 21
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
39%
macroExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.41PoorApr 14
✅ No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
36%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.00ExcellentApr 14
❌ BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
5%
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