Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (8)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
✅ Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
Federal Reserve News & Events showed no emergency rate action announcement by the 2026-04-06 deadline; the last listed FOMC press conference was March 18, 2026 and the page was updated April 3 without an emergency move.
✅ Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
No Federal Reserve emergency rate announcement or emergency policy change was found before 2026-04-11.
✅ EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
✅ US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
US Treasury daily yield data for 2026-04-06 shows the 10-year yield remained below 5%, around the mid-4% range, through expiry.
✅ USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
above $4.6 — actual $4.317
❌ Gordon Alpha Brief reaches 100 subscribers
Invalidated: Insufficient evidence for official status — no evidence families, signals, or structured evidence items. Long horizon without supporting data.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
✅ GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
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