Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (20)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
❌ No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
Reuters and White House releases from 2026-01-07/08 show the United States announced withdrawal from major international agreements and organizations including the Paris climate agreement and WHO.
✅ US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
News coverage through 2026-04-11 did not show confirmed US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
❌ Ukraine loses additional significant territory by end of April
✅ Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
Reuters on 2026-04-02 reported Iran had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and 40 countries were discussing ways to reopen it; no unrestricted reopening occurred before the 2026-04-06 deadline.
✅ Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic through April 2026
❌ China conducts major Taiwan Strait military exercise in April
❌ Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round
Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
❌ Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
❌ No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
Reuters coverage by 2026-04-06 described an expanding Iran war, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards claiming attacks on petrochemical plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, which counts as major regional military escalation before the deadline.
✅ North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
✅ No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
No credible report was found of a new country imposing sanctions on Iran's oil exports before 2026-04-11.
✅ Iran conflict escalates to ground incursion by May 15 2026
✅ No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
❌ Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
News coverage through 2026-04-11 showed threats and analysis, not a confirmed resumption or authorization of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
❌ EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
Coverage before 2026-04-11 described backing, safeguards, and approval progress, not final ratification by both sides.
✅ Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
Ceasefire agreement reached on April 8, 2026 as confirmed by multiple news sources including Wikipedia and UK Parliament research briefings
❌ Iran launches direct strike on Israeli territory (not via proxies) by end of Q2 2026
Invalidated: Deferred — resolveBy more than 60 days out. System optimizing for faster learning loops. Re-create as short-horizon prediction with concrete trigger if still relevant.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
✅ Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
✅ Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
❌ Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
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