Prediction Tracker

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All classes (220)Search-first (109)Core (93)Experimental (18)

All categories (66)commodities crypto geopolitical macro markets technology

Awaiting Result (5)

marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026

QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026

Floor prediction for Nasdaq-100 ETF. base rate: QQQ has maintained floors at similar buffer levels ~62% of the time.

55%

marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026

SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026

Floor prediction with generous buffer. Markets have been resilient.

55%

marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026

Resolved (61)

How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.

Prediction Tracker

Awaiting Result (5)

QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026

SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026

Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026

Resolved (61)

✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($54) on 2026-04-05

✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $50 today (2026-04-01)

❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4

❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026

✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026

✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31

❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

❌ VIX closes above $25 on April 4

✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days

❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)

❌ VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026

✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)

✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-14)

✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days

❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days

❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below $63 through 2026-04-06

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $79 today (2026-04-13)

✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $86 today (2026-04-14)

✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $59 today (2026-04-07)

✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026

❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07

✅ VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026

✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($56) on 2026-04-11

❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026

✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09

✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09

✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above $18,000 by April 9, 2026

✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($56) on 2026-04-10

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07

✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20

✅ SPY stays above $74.64 today (2026-04-15)

✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19

✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above $02 through 2026-04-07

❌ VIX stays below $25 through end of week

❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above $103 through Friday

❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

❌ NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07

❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026

❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)

✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)