Prediction Tracker
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Expired (1)
Resolved (109)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
❌ Oil prices exceed 120 USD per barrel at some point in April 2026
❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
S&P 500 made new 20-day high, rallied above 5500 due to Middle East war resolution news
❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
below $500 — actual $6497.81
✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
StockAnalysis SPY history shows a 2.91% daily move on 2026-03-31, exceeding the 2% threshold before 2026-04-07.
✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
above $500 — actual $6497.81
❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
below $500 — actual $6582.69
❌ VIX closes above 25 on April 4
VIX closed below 25, estimated ~22.5 based on March 2026 levels of 25.25
✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below 20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Nasdaq closed at 20,312 on April 2, 2026, below 20,500 target before April 4
❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
Malformed expiry: the May 2026 FOMC meeting had not occurred by the configured resolve date, so this prediction was not yet resolvable.
❌ VIX stays above 25 every trading day through April 10, 2026
above $25 — actual $19.23
✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
above $1.14 — actual $1.1547
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 205.10 on 2026-06-05 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 214.75 on 2026-06-03 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 211.14 on 2026-05-29 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 214.25 on 2026-05-28 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 212.60 on 2026-05-27 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 214.86 on 2026-05-26 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 219.51 on 2026-05-21 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 223.47 on 2026-05-20 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 220.61 on 2026-05-19 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA close 222.32 on 2026-05-18 vs >=100 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
Yahoo Finance SPY chart data shows SPY closed 650.34 on 2026-03-31, 655.24 on 2026-04-01, and 655.83 on 2026-04-02, so it was nowhere near the claimed 81-83 range.
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below 63 through 2026-04-06
StockAnalysis historical data shows SPY closed at 655.83 on 2026-04-02, far above 63, so the prediction was false.
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (32) on 2026-04-04
S&P 500 ETI closed at 5,254 on April 4th, above the 5232 threshold from April 1st
✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
above $1.148 — actual $1.1547
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
SPY close 754.24 on 2026-06-03 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 744.21 on 2026-06-03 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 388.59 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
SPY close 759.57 on 2026-06-02 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 746.16 on 2026-06-02 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
SPY close 758.54 on 2026-06-01 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 742.74 on 2026-06-01 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 413.65 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 738.31 on 2026-05-29 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 729.45 on 2026-05-27 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 420.51 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-22..2026-05-29 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 730.28 on 2026-05-26 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 412.90 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-21..2026-05-28 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 406.39 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-20..2026-05-27 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-19..2026-05-26 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 717.54 on 2026-05-22 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-18..2026-05-25 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 713.15 on 2026-05-20 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 701.53 on 2026-05-19 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-14..2026-05-21 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 705.88 on 2026-05-18 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-13..2026-05-20 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 708.93 on 2026-05-15 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-12..2026-05-19 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ close 708.93 on 2026-05-15 vs >=460 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA min low 405.33 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-11..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
QQQ closed at $707.24 on May 12, 2026. Well above $460. Source: MacroTrends/MarketBeat.
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA closed at ~$433 on May 13, 2026 (intraday low $422). Well above $200. Source: Yahoo Finance.
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA closed at ~$227 on May 13, 2026 (intraday low $221). Well above $100. Source: Yahoo Finance.
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
TSLA closed at $433.45 on May 12, 2026. Well above $200. Source: MacroTrends/Yahoo Finance.
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
NVDA closed at $220.78 on May 12, 2026. Well above $100. Source: MacroTrends/Yahoo Finance.
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Apple (AAPL) closes above $200 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Microsoft (MSFT) stays above $400 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026
QQQ daily closes Apr 27-May 5 2026: all above $651 (Yahoo Finance). Lowest close $651.42. Never breached $460. Resolved YES.
✅ SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026
❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
StockAnalysis AAPL history shows a 2026-03-31 intraday low of 247.10 and a 2026-03-30 low of 245.51, so Apple did not stay above 50 through expiry.
✅ VIX closes above 30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
above $500 — actual $6816.89
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
Yahoo Finance QQQ closed about $610.19 on 2026-04-09, more than 2% above the $582 reference level.
✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
below $22 — actual $19.23
✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
✅ Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026
AAPL closed at $276.83 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $276.83 > $210. Resolved YES.
✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026
NVDA closed at $198.48 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $198.48 > $115. Resolved YES.
✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above 02 through 2026-04-07
StockAnalysis SPY history shows closes and lows remained well above the threshold through 2026-04-06; SPY traded between roughly 629 and 659 during the window.
❌ VIX stays below 25 through end of week
❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above 103 through Friday
❌ NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
StockAnalysis NVDA history shows a 2026-04-06 close of 177.64, so NVIDIA did not close above 80 by expiry.
❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
❌ NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026
NVDA closed at $198.48 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $198.48 > $95. Did not drop below $95. Resolved NO.
❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
CBOE VIX_History.csv shows VIX closed 25.25 on 2026-03-31 and 23.87 on 2026-04-02, a decline of about 5.47%, so it lost more than 5% within the next 7 days.
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