Prediction Tracker

✅ Gold stays above 687 today (2026-04-06)

Gold prices were far above the stated 687 threshold on 2026-04-06, so the condition held for the day.

❌ NVDA closes higher than pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 FY2027 report on May 20, 2026

Invalidated: Empty or too-short title — not publishable. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (54) on 2026-04-05

The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday on 2026-04-03 and remained closed on Sunday 2026-04-05, so SPY had no 2026-04-05 close; the stated criterion therefore did not occur.

❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days

Reuters and Fortune market coverage show Brent jumped to about 11 by 2026-04-02/06 versus about 00.26 on 2026-04-01, far outside the stated range constraint.

✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)

S&P 500 closed at 6,343 points vs Oil ~03/barrel - S&P 500 points (6343) is higher than oil price (~103), as confirmed by CNBC March 30 market close data

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 50 today (2026-04-01)

S&P 500 closed at 6,343, well above 50 - confirmed by CNBC March 30, 2026 market close

✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today (00) on 2026-04-06

Reuters and Fortune market coverage show Brent was about 00.26 on 2026-04-01 and around 11 on 2026-04-06, so it closed higher than the starting level.

✅ Gold stays above 736 today (2026-04-01)

Gold closed March 1 at ~,200+ (was ,660 on March 20, ,430-4,439 on March 26-27), far above 36 threshold

❌ Gold stays above 808 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: gold's quoted 2026-04-17 close was about ,800, below the prediction's reference level of about ,808, so it did not stay above that level through the day.

✅ Gold stays above 842 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: gold remained far above 842 on 2026-04-16, with spot prices around ,816-,822/oz; the threshold was satisfied all day.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 55 today (2026-04-02)

Yahoo Finance SPY historical data shows SPY closed 655.83 on 2026-04-02, which is clearly above 55.

✅ Gold stays above 836 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance GC=F daily data for 2026-04-15 showed gold futures low about ,812 and close about ,857, so gold stayed above 836 all day.

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: VIX closed at 17.65 on 2026-04-17, which is below 20, so the prediction resolved correct.

✅ Gold stays above 809 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via April 2026 gold price coverage: gold remained well above 809 on 2026-04-14.

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: VIX closed at 18.57 on 2026-04-16, which is below 20.

✅ Gold stays above 754 today (2026-04-13)

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance GC=F stayed far above 754 on 2026-04-13, with an intraday low near $4,704.00.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 02 today (2026-04-17)

Web check: SPY closed above the stated 702 threshold on 2026-04-17; reported closes were above 705 and above 710 across cited market-data sources, so the above-702 condition was satisfied.

✅ BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD lows stayed above $62,000 throughout the window ending 2026-04-09.

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for ^VIX on 2026-04-15 showed a close around 18.17, below 20.

✅ VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via 2026-04-14 market coverage showing VIX at 19.12, which is below 20.

❌ SOL closes above 130 by April 13 2026

Yahoo Finance SOL-USD never closed above $130 by 2026-04-13; it closed about $84.95 on 2026-04-11 and about $81.54 on 2026-04-12.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 00 today (2026-04-16)

Web check: SPY closed at 701.55 on 2026-04-16, so it finished above 700.

✅ Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15

CoinGecko history/range data for 2026-04-15 showed ETH around ,323 close and intraday prices above the intended ~,184 threshold.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15

CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC ended the UTC day around 4,833, above the intended ~0,722 threshold.

✅ Gold stays above 676 today (2026-04-07)

above $676 — actual $4743.7

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 94 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed a close around 99.94, above 94.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 79 today (2026-04-13)

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance SPY closed about $686.10 on 2026-04-13, well above 79.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 86 today (2026-04-14)

Resolved via April 2026 market coverage: SPY/S&P 500 levels were hundreds of points above 86, so this condition was satisfied.

✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 59 today (2026-04-07)

above $500 — actual $6816.89

✅ Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026

✅ Gold stays above 627 today (2026-04-02)

Gold priced at ,676 (XAU/USD currency pair), well above the 27 threshold

✅ Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026

❌ Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026

✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06

Yahoo Finance / Macrotrends data shows MSFT closed 369.37 on 2026-04-01 and 373.46 on 2026-04-02; a 5% band from 369.37 is 350.90 to 387.84, so it remained within range through the configured 2026-04-04 resolve window (weekend, no trading).

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (56) on 2026-04-11

Yahoo Finance SPY closed about $679.46 on 2026-04-10 versus about $658.93 on 2026-04-06, so it did not close lower than the starting level.

✅ BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closed above $70,000 before the deadline, including about $71,940 on 2026-04-07.

✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ^GSPC shows the S&P 500 closed well above 5,800 before the deadline, including about 6,824.66 on 2026-04-09.

❌ DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026

Web check: DOGE traded around /bin/bash.0968 on 2026-04-16 and did not exceed /bin/bash.12.

✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above 18,000 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ^IXIC shows the Nasdaq Composite closed above 18,000 before the deadline, including about 22,822.42 on 2026-04-09.

✅ ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closed above $2,200 before the deadline, including about $2,241.81 on 2026-04-07.

✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $560 at least once before June 1, 2026

SPY max close 758.54 vs reach 560 over 2026-04-20..2026-06-01 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07

Yahoo Finance MSFT did not move more than 5% from the 2026-04-02 reference price before the stated date; highs and lows stayed within that band.

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (56) on 2026-04-10

above $500 — actual $6816.89

❌ Ethereum closes lower than today (185) on 2026-04-17

Web check: ETH-USD closed about ,284.72 on 2026-04-17, above the prediction's reference level of about ,185, so it did not close lower than that day's starting level.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today (3490) on 2026-04-14

Resolved via published BTC market price for 2026-04-14: Bitcoin traded around 4,314, which is far above the 3490 reference level.

✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today (4902) on 2026-04-20

Bitcoin closed around 5,000 on 2026-04-20, significantly higher than the baseline price of ,902

❌ Bitcoin rises above $80,000 by May 4, 2026

✅ Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026

❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (00) on 2026-04-20

Cannot determine outcome - baseline price appears to be placeholder (00) and no reliable historical data available for S&P 500 closing price on 2026-04-20

✅ Gold (GLD) stays above 35.72 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for GLD on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 39.60, so GLD stayed above 35.72 all day.

✅ SPY stays above 74.64 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 94.28, so SPY stayed above 74.64 all day.

✅ Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)

CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC intraday low around 3,617, so it stayed above 1,820 all day.

❌ Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for GLD on 2026-04-15 showed a low around 39.60 and close around 40.46, so GLD did not stay above 23; the threshold appears malformed.

✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)

Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 94.28, so SPY stayed above 25 all day.

✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (86) on 2026-04-19

Yahoo Finance SPY: reference close was 86.10 on 2026-04-13; SPY closed 10.14 on 2026-04-17 and 08.72 on 2026-04-20, both above the baseline despite the malformed 2026-04-19 target falling on a non-trading day.

❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

Yahoo Finance SPY: baseline was 99.94 on 2026-04-15/16; a 3% gain required 20.94 within 7 days, but the highest close was 11.21 on 2026-04-22 and the intraday high was 12.39, so SPY never gained 3%.

❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20

Yahoo Finance MSFT: baseline close was 11.22 on 2026-04-15, so a 5% move required above 31.78 or below 90.66 by 2026-04-20; MSFT reached only 31.58 at the high and never hit either threshold.

❌ Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026

❌ Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026

❌ Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)

Ethereum price decreased from ,370.17 on April 13 to ,290 on April 20, a loss of about 3.38%, which is less than 4%

❌ Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)

Bitcoin gained approximately 1.17% from April 13 to April 20, 2026 (from 4,450 to 5,324.58), which is less than 3%

❌ Will Solana trade above $100 by June 30, 2026?

SOL-USD max high 98.27 vs reach 100 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-30 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?

✅ Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?

NVDA max high 236.54 vs reach 130 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?

NG=F max high 3.40 vs reach 3.5 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-17 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?

CL=F max high 110.93 vs reach 65 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?

✅ Will the VIX stay below 25 through May 15, 2026?

^VIX max high 21.56 vs stay-below 25 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-15 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

✅ Will the S&P 500 close above $5,600 by June 30, 2026?

^GSPC max close 7609.78 vs reach 5600 over 2026-04-18..2026-06-30 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

❌ Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)

Yahoo Finance GC=F shows gold closed about $4,749.50 on 2026-04-08 versus roughly $4,750.90 at creation, nowhere near a 4% drop.

❌ Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)

Yahoo Finance BZ=F shows Brent closed about $94.75 on 2026-04-08 versus roughly $100.26 at creation, a decline rather than a 3%+ gain.