Prediction Tracker

Every prediction publicly tracked. Full accountability.

453
Total
0
Active
418
Resolved
0.21
Brier Score
CryptoMarketsTechnologyCommoditiesSportsTrack Record →

You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.

All classes (453)Search-first (0)Core (453)Experimental (0)
All categories (127)commoditiesconsciousnesscryptofailure-riskgeopoliticalmacromacro-indicatormarketsphilosophyprice-movementproduct-launchtechnologytechnology-cultureuncategorized

Resolved (127)

How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.

cryptoCoreWrongApr 29

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

93%
cryptoCoreWrongApr 29

❌ SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow

75%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7

❌ Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target

Web search results on 2026-04-06 show Bitcoin trading around 9.7k, below the 1,200 7-day target at resolution.

75%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 4

✅ BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4

75%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 16

❌ SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026

Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 was still in progress by the configured resolve date, so full-quarter SOL vs ETH performance was not yet determinable.

75%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 2

❌ Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

QUBIC closed at exactly /bin/bash.000001, not above - prediction requires strictly above target

74%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 2

❌ Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko

ETH showed narrow range volatility in March - predicted single large swing but ETH was range-bound

73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 13

❌ BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026

above $75000 — actual $71046

73%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 11

✅ BTC above 75k by end of April

73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1

❌ BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026

73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorApr 3

❌ Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target

Bitcoin 3d forecast closed at ~8,500, below the 9,500 target

72%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31

✅ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026

72%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31

✅ Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

72%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorMar 31

❌ BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

72%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31

✅ Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31

71%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorMar 31

❌ Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

above $9 — actual $8.85

71%
cryptoCoreWrongApr 29

❌ SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer

65%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodMay 9

✅ BTC stays above $75,000 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika

60%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27

❌ BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days

60%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMar 31

✅ Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

above $0.085 — actual $0.089771

59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodJul 7

✅ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.025 through May 22, 2026

min ETH/BTC ratio 0.02735 vs >=0.025 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-23 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

58%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodMay 1

✅ BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30

58%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 4

✅ Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026

57%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.31PoorMar 31

❌ Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

below $8 — actual $8.78

56%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 4

❌ Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026

56%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ BTC drops below $70,000 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 59108.92 vs drop-below 70000 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1540.16 vs drop-below 1900 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 61.59 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-29..2026-06-05 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ BTC stays below $75,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ ETH stays below $2,050 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ BTC drops below $69,000 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 61335.75 vs drop-below 69000 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1717.80 vs drop-below 1900 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ SOL drops below $75 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 67.52 vs drop-below 75 over 2026-05-28..2026-06-04 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ BTC drops below $71,000 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 64009.68 vs drop-below 71000 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ ETH drops below $1,950 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1771.31 vs drop-below 1950 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 70.97 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-27..2026-06-03 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 27

✅ ETH stays below $2,100 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 27

✅ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD min low 66127.27 vs drop-below 73000 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ BTC stays between $73,000 and $80,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD min low 1838.06 vs drop-below 2000 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,200 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairJul 7

✅ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD min low 72.87 vs drop-below 80 over 2026-05-26..2026-06-02 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 29

✅ SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorJul 7

❌ BTC closes above $81,000 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

BTC-USD close 71319.77 on 2026-06-01 vs >=81000 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 28

✅ BTC stays between $74,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorJul 7

❌ ETH closes above $2,250 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

ETH-USD close 2003.22 on 2026-06-01 vs >=2250 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 28

✅ ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,250 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorJul 7

❌ SOL closes above $90 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

SOL-USD close 81.09 on 2026-06-01 vs >=90 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 28

✅ SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 29

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 29

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 29

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 28

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 28

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 28

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 27

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 23

✅ BTC stays between $73,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 27

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 27

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 26

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 26

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 26

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 19

✅ ETH stays below $2,150 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 19

❌ SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 25

❌ BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 25

❌ ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 25

❌ SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 17

✅ BTC stays below $81,000 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 17

✅ ETH stays below $2,250 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 17

✅ SOL stays below $90 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 23

❌ BTC drops below $75,000 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 19

✅ BTC stays between $75,000 and $83,000 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 23

✅ ETH drops below $2,100 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 23

✅ SOL drops below $85 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 16

❌ BTC stays above $80,000 through 2026-05-16 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 22

❌ BTC closes above $85,000 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 18

✅ BTC stays between $77,000 and $85,000 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 22

❌ ETH closes above $2,400 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 18

❌ ETH stays between $2,200 and $2,400 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 22

❌ SOL closes above $95 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 12

✅ BTC stays above $77,000 through May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMay 15

❌ BTC does not drop below $75,000 between May 8-14, 2026

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 3

✅ BTC closes within $73,000-$79,000 range on 2026-04-30

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 1

✅ ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 3

✅ BTC outperforms ETH over next 48h (% change comparison)

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14

✅ SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal

Yahoo Finance SOL-USD shows SOL rose more than 5% within seven days of 2026-04-01, reaching an intraday high near $86.81 vs about $81.20 at the start.

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14

✅ Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily lows stayed above $60,000 through 2026-04-10; the lowest low in the window was about $65,725 on 2026-04-02.

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30

✅ Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4

❌ Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4

❌ Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026

Cardano priced at /bin/bash.247 on April 1st, above the /bin/bash.22 threshold, trading in /bin/bash.25-/bin/bash.80 range

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30

✅ BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours

55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 16

❌ Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026

Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 had not ended by the configured resolve date, so net Q2 ETH ETF inflows were not yet determinable.

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29

✅ Fear & Greed Index stays below 20 for next 48 hours

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30

✅ BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours

55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.21FairMar 30

✅ Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

54%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30

✅ Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

53%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30

✅ XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

53%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.28PoorApr 4

❌ XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026

53%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairMay 9

✅ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.028 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika

52%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 3

✅ SOL outperforms ETH over next 24h (% change comparison)

52%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairMay 8

✅ Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026

52%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 3

✅ Bitcoin 30-day price forecast: $76,500 target

52%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairMar 30

✅ Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

52%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMay 12

✅ BTC closes above $78,000 on May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC

45%
cryptoCoreCorrectMay 11

✅ Will the ETH/BTC ratio be below 0.029 on May 10, 2026 23:59 UTC?

45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31

❌ Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026

45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 30

❌ NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31

❌ Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

45%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMay 10

✅ Will BTC trade above $80,000 at any point between May 3-9, 2026?

42%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorMay 7

✅ Will BTC close above $79,000 on May 6, 2026 23:59 UTC?

40%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.12GoodMay 12

❌ BTC trades above $82,000 at any point between May 8-11, 2026

35%
cryptoCoreWrongMay 13

❌ BTC moves more than 5% in either direction from $79,568 within 72 hours (by May 11)

BTC stayed in ~2% range around $79,568-$81,224 during May 9-12. Never breached 5% threshold ($83,546 or $75,590). Source: CoinGecko/Fortune.

30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMay 11

❌ USDC price moves >-3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet inflow

Research-derived shadow prediction. Window: May 8-10, 2026. USDC is a regulated stablecoin with strong peg enforcement. Exchange inflows rarely cause >3% price deviations for USDC given its fiat-redeemable structure. Resolves FALSE.

30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMay 9

❌ SOL price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMay 9

❌ USDC price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28

❌ Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week

30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28

❌ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday

30%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.52PoorMay 9

✅ Will SOL close above $90 on May 8, 2026 23:59 UTC?

28%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.07ExcellentMay 9

❌ USDT price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow

26%
cryptoCoreWrongMay 6

❌ Will BTC move more than 3% in either direction within 24 hours of May 5, 2026 00:00 UTC?

BTC prices May 5 00:00 UTC: open ~$79,824, 24h range ~$78,563-$80,925 (~2.5% range). Did not move >3%. CoinGecko data. Resolved NO.

22%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentJul 7

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 70000 over 2026-05-05..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

21%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentJul 7

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 55000 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

15%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentJul 7

❌ Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?

BTC-USD min low 72435.63 vs dip-to 60000 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

15%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentJul 7

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?

BTC-USD max high 82792.21 vs reach 105000 over 2026-05-04..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

15%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentJul 7

❌ Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?

BTC-USD max high 82792.21 vs reach 100000 over 2026-05-03..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

15%

You'll also receive the Daily Alpha Brief — AI-curated market intelligence. Unsubscribe anytime.

🔮 Get Free Predictions Report