Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (14)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7
❌ No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
75%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.11GoodApr 14
✅ US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
67%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 6
✅ Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
65%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
60%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 6
❌ No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
59%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
55%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 7
✅ No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
50%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
49%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
46%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 6
✅ No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08
46%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 14
❌ EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
44%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorMar 28
✅ Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
40%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentApr 14
❌ New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
20%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 30
❌ Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
20%
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