Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (32)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
✅ Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25
❌ Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026
Yahoo Finance BZ=F data shows Brent traded below $100 before 2026-04-10, including a 2026-04-08 intraday low near $90.01.
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
✅ Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31
❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
FRED and AGA search results show Henry Hub around .88 on 2026-03-30 and struggling to hold above .00 through March, with no evidence of a close above .30 before 2026-04-07.
❌ Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
❌ Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
✅ Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4
✅ Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
✅ WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
✅ Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Web search results for April 2026 silver prices show silver above 0/oz by 2026-04-06, so the threshold was reached before expiry.
❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
TradingEconomics and Reuters-adjacent search results show copper near .90/lb in early April 2026, with no evidence of a close above .10/lb before 2026-04-07.
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
✅ WTI crude oil stays above $55/barrel through 2026/05/20
✅ Silver (XAGUSD) stays above $30/oz through 2026/05/20
SI=F min low 70.89 vs stay-above 30 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-20 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
❌ Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days
✅ Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours
✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
❌ Brent Crude stays below 12 through 2026-04-06
Reuters reported Brent crude settled at 09.03 on 2026-04-02, far above 12, so the prediction was false.
✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,000/oz every trading day through May 31, 2026
GC=F min low 4363.50 vs stay-above 3000 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
✅ Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
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