Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (6)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 7
❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days
73%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
73%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 7
✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today ($00) on 2026-04-06
71%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 7
❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
71%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7
❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
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