Prediction Tracker
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Resolved (22)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.05ExcellentApr 17
✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
77%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 6
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($54) on 2026-04-05
74%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentApr 2
✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
73%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.09ExcellentApr 7
✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
70%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.45PoorApr 7
❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
67%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.44PoorApr 16
❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
66%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 21
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
62%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
61%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days
60%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 5
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
60%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04
59%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 29
✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
57%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
56%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
55%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($56) on 2026-04-11
49%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
45%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($56) on 2026-04-10
44%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 25
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20
40%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 24
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above $103 through Friday
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
39%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.90PoorApr 7
✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
5%
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